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Maldives Monetary Authority (MMA) has revealed 1.4 million tourists are expected to visit the Maldives. MMA made the statement in its research paper on Tourism Forecasting Model for the Maldives.
In the research paper, MMA made separate forecasts according to scenarios, which are the most optimistic case, optimistic case, moderate case, and the worst case. MMA stated that 1 million tourist arrivals in 2021 and 1.4 million tourist arrivals in 2022 are expected in the most optimistic case.
The statistics for the most optimistic scenario also show a record 1.8 million tourist arrivals in 2023. Additionally, the statistics for the optimistic case show over 700,000 tourists arrival this year, while the moderate case shows 600,000 arrivals and the worst case shows over 400,000 arrivals.
MMA stated the paper uses an Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average-based approach to develop a tourism forecasting model for the Maldives. In the research paper, MMA stated the tourism sector is expected to perform better in 2021 with the increased frequency of flights and the commencement of new flights.
The authority also stated the top two markets for the year include Russia and India but the tourism sector is subject to risks and challenges in the near term due to the new variant and uncertainty around COVID-19, especially in India.